Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 2.349112 2.753207 3.202161 3.737412 4.357672 5.053323 5.892239
2025-11-30 1.736289 2.278630 2.947755 3.831590 4.965849 6.369980 8.237440
2025-12-07 1.309412 1.887731 2.665792 3.783645 5.342356 7.431770 10.437179
2025-12-14 1.030338 1.609463 2.448097 3.741603 5.675160 8.444550 12.694963
2025-12-21 0.843761 1.414094 2.294817 3.739644 6.033089 9.510118 15.150621
2025-12-28 0.767251 1.367221 2.346895 4.042066 6.875528 11.385404 19.055096
2026-01-04 0.666010 1.256982 2.273561 4.121944 7.362669 12.757050 22.337044
2026-01-11 0.583810 1.162316 2.206687 4.194519 7.836241 14.151892 25.820235
2026-01-18 0.508705 1.065424 2.117408 4.207925 8.198875 15.390593 29.175932
2026-01-25 0.440999 0.969511 2.012654 4.172338 8.459450 16.469430 32.364729
2026-02-01 0.363201 0.838070 1.816857 3.927388 8.281682 16.712209 34.021291
2026-02-08 0.309593 0.747793 1.688639 3.796311 8.304497 17.327790 36.449741
2026-02-15 0.268646 0.679875 1.600259 3.743486 8.497999 18.338132 39.865026
2026-02-22 0.248573 0.657164 1.607809 3.902750 9.169040 20.410950 45.736859
2026-03-01 0.218594 0.604303 1.537908 3.875826 9.427865 21.656127 50.030953
2026-03-08 0.192409 0.555623 1.469289 3.840129 9.660266 22.871510 54.412410
2026-03-15 0.171764 0.517283 1.419181 3.840593 9.976184 24.309189 59.466093
2026-03-22 0.168198 0.525455 1.488500 4.151708 11.087600 27.696901 69.397682
2026-03-29 0.154573 0.501942 1.470621 4.233965 11.640410 29.842137 76.665330
2026-04-05 0.142101 0.479253 1.451070 4.308532 12.183902 32.029943 84.296818
2026-04-12 0.128822 0.451235 1.411753 4.322322 12.569237 33.874416 91.302008
2026-04-19 0.115463 0.420045 1.357808 4.285822 12.813196 35.391380 97.662284
2026-04-26 0.097560 0.369628 1.237307 4.034496 12.422521 35.219235 99.639640